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Prognostic Characteristics of Breast Cancer Among
Postmenopausal Hormone Users in a Screened Population
By Karla Kerlikowske, Diana L. Miglioretti, Rachel Ballard-Barbash, Donald L. Weaver, Diana S.M. Buist, William E. Barlow,
Gary Cutter, Berta M. Geller, Bonnie Yankaskas, Stephen H. Taplin, and Patricia A. Carney
Purpose: We determined the risk of breast cancer and
tumor characteristics among current postmenopausal
hormone therapy users compared with nonusers, by duration
of use.
Methods: From January 1996 to December 2000, data
were collected prospectively on 374,465 postmenopausal
women aged 50 to 79 years who underwent screening
mammography. We calculated the relative risk (RR) of
breast cancer (invasive or ductal carcinoma-in-situ) and
type of breast cancer within 12 months of postmenopausal
therapy use among current hormone users with a uterus
(proxy for estrogen and progestin use) and without a uterus
(proxy for estrogen use), compared with nonusers.
Results: Compared with nonusers, women using estrogen
and progestin for > 5 years were at increased risk of
breast tumors of stage 0 or I (RR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.37 to
1.66), stage II or higher (RR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.30 to 1.63),
size < 20 mm (RR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.43 to 1.76), size greater
than 20 mm (RR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.42), grade 1 or 2
(RR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.44 to 1.77), grade 3 or 4 (RR, 1.54; 95%
CI, 1.37 to 1.73), and estrogen receptor-positive (RR, 1.72;
95% CI, 1.55 to 1.90). Estrogen-only users were slightly
more likely to have estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer
compared with nonusers (RR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.23).
Conclusion: Use of estrogen and progestin postmenopausal
hormone therapy for five years or more increased
the likelihood of developing breast cancer, including both
tumors with favorable prognostic features and tumors with
unfavorable prognostic features.
J Clin Oncol 21:4314-4321. © 2003 by American
Society of Clinical Oncology.
POSTMENOPAUSAL HORMONE therapy (HT) has been
associated with increased risk of breast cancer.1-3 Estrogen
plus progestin regimens may be associated with a greater risk of
breast cancer than estrogen-only regimens4-6; however, results
are not consistent or conclusive across studies.2,4-7 It is also
unclear whether HT results in an increased risk of breast cancer
with a favorable prognosis (low stage and grade), less favorable
prognosis (high stage and grade), or both.
Several observational studies have reported that HT users
have smaller8-13 and lower-grade tumors,10,12,14-17 while others
have not shown any influence of HT on tumor size14,15,18-23 or
grade.9,13,18,21,23 Three studies have reported that HT users are
more likely to have estrogen receptor- (ER-) positive tumors.
4,9,24 Several others have reported no association with HT
use and ER status.8,10 –15,18 –20,23 The inconsistent results across
studies may be because many include a small number of women
who had been receiving HT when diagnosed with breast cancer
(n 29 to n 263).4,8,10 –21,23 In addition, many of the studies
did not adequately account for breast cancer surveillance by
screening mammography,4,8 –12,15,16,18 –20,23 which could result in
earlier detection and fewer advanced cancers in HT users. Lastly,
the studies had no information or very limited information on
tumor characteristics associated with type of HT regimen or